Audrey Sawers muscled the ball past the excellent Bucknell goalkeeper with 8:52 left in the game in a play that was a metaphor for the whole afternoon. Both sides played with emotion and character,  that gave the words,”championship effort,” meaning. For those 51 minutes and 18 seconds, it was a see saw battle which had observers on the edge of the their seats or walking along the sideline. It was the dominant second half by the Leopards which moved the momentum in the Leopards favor, and led ultimately to Sawers second and third effort ending in a 1-0 lead.

The game had all the expected drama, as Bucknell opened the contest emulating American’s strategy of last week,  using quick starts from free hits, and an attacking style. The Leopards responded with an early high press, that by the last two quarters was to put Bucknell on their heels, and expose them, and the their defense to an onslaught of shots that ultimately led to victory. It was that 12-1 advantage in shots in the second half that was to ultimately determine the final outcome.

The Leopards coaching staff and team learned lessons well from last week, and were able to overcome the disappointment  of not getting to the circle against American last week, with a well orchestrated attack. However, the first half of yesterday’s game, which produced only a 3 to 1 difference in shots between Bucknell and Lafayette, would not be a preview as to how the rest of the game would go. Bucknell was to the receive an early opportunity with a corner with only about 3 minutes gone in the game. It would be Bucknell’s only corner of the game. Lafayette responded with a corner of their own in the first quarter, and a scrum later  in front of the cage. That activity looked to many observers like a goal was scored during that scrum. The near official ruled it hit a Lafayette player before entering the cage. ( I reviewed the video and looked to me like a good goal by Angellela on the deflection. Please, please can the PL go instant replay!!!)

The second half, unlike the first, was to see the Leopards gain control.  Lafayette numerous  shots did not find its finish during the second half.  The Bucknell goalie, Olivia Harris ( the Patriot League goalie of the year) turned away 7 shots during the game, six alone in the second half.

The Lafayette defense anchored by the Patriot League defensive player of year Lisa van der Geest was to extinguish threat after threat by the game Bucknell attack before they could reach the shooting circle. Freshman Simone Hefting, playing in only her second game in about 3 weeks was always there as part of the defensive wall. All league mid Anna Steps seemed to be at the ready to consistently halt bison attacks before they got started. But this was not the effort of single players, as the  17 players who saw action displayed the character of this team as the game wore on.  The  entire team was into it as the bench encouraged and no doubt helped prepare their teammates for this weekend!!

The encouragement and preparation by the Coach of the Year Jennifer Stone and her staff was perfect, as the team seemed well prepared and up for challenge. American coach Steve Jennings was seen watching the entire game from a building at the end of the field. Coach Stone also watched the previous Holy Cross v American game which ended in a 5-1 win for the Eagles of American University.

In that first game Holy Cross got off to a slow start in which American and their star junior attacker Noor Coenen dominated the game. The game had none of the drama of the afternoon game.

This sets up a 12 noon match for the Patriot League Championship which not only gets rings for the winner and trophies, but the right to move on to the national division one tournament. The Leopards celebrated, with a team dinner, and will return to the pitch on Saturday to prepare for Sunday’s match!

Lafayette fans, for the most part, will extend their stay in Washington ( no doubt with the hope that the broken water main that deprived residents in DC of potable water is repaired). They will brave the cold hoping that parking will be more available, and long walks to avoid tickets will be a thing of the past. But unlike five of their  Patriot League sister schools Lafayette will be playing on! Go Pards!!!

In case you haven’t noticed, I do have a fascination for numbers. Perhaps its derived from  a career in finance, first as a foreign exchange trader on Wall Street, looking for arbitrages and later as a Treasurer of a good size bank evaluating enterprise risk. However, I have over the years also had good respect for exogenous factors that may drive unexpected outcomes. The expected result doesn’t always happen. The Nationals win the World Series, or the Eagles win the Super Bowl. The NCAA basketball tournament has its share of upsets. The “one and done” format especially, is prone to surprises.

There are several elements to winning which I described in an earlier article. Part of winning is convincing your opponent, they can’t, which to my mind is taking away the things they do well or isolating and neutralizing a key player. So perhaps we should look at the things our potential opponents do well, and focus how each team might approach their opponent.

Teams will approach each opponent differently at different stages of the season considering variables such as injuries, weather and  venue. It will be cold on Friday. Each team has key injuries, whether they want to admit it or not, We are playing the tournament at American. It is a one year old turf which is much improved from the previous surface they owned. Their crowd size during the year was hardly overwhelming, and the first games will be played during class time.  Lafayette just played there last week, so counting practice time Lafayette would have spent four days out of the last eight on that surface by the time of the Bucknell game.

Starting with statistics ( I can’t help myself), I will use in conference stats only. They are recent and against common opponents. Scoring margin reveals American and Lafayette at first and second. American’s average is 2.50 plus and Lafayette is 2.25. Bucknell and Holy Cross are third and fifth at plus 1.67 and minus 1.17 respectively. American averages 3.33 goals per game, Bucknell 3.17 , Lafayette 2.89, and Holy Cross 2.17.

Lafayette has three shutouts and leads the field in that category, along with a goals against  average of .64 and Holy Cross’ 3.33 at the bottom. American takes 16.5 shots per game while Lafayette takes 15.83 per game, Bucknell 12.17, and Holy Cross 10.  Holy Cross has had to make 8.5 saves per game, Bucknell 3.5, Lafayette 2.67 and American 2.5.

Penalty Corners  are an important aspect in scoring for Bucknell and Lafayette. American gets 6.83 corners per game, Bucknell  5.5, Lafayette  4.67, and Holy Cross  3.33.  Lafayette must get to the circle and get corners. Last Friday they had 0 corners. Here’s why, Bucknell gets 1 goal per game on corners, Lafayette gets .83 per game, American .5 and Holy Cross .33.

Now the intangibles, and individual player stats. American has momentum having gone undefeated in the League and they are playing at home, but they have played , one goal games against Lafayette and Holy Cross. The Bucknell win was by two goals (3-1).

Noor Coenan leads the League in shots while Bucknell and Lafayette have a more diversified attack with McAndrews and Van der Geest contributing for Lafayette and Leah Fogelsanger and Britany Willwerth providing the scoring strength for Bucknell. American has Coenen at first in the League in points and Hannah Moser at 10th. Molly McAndrews is second in the league in points and Van der Geest is seventh, Bucknell has four in the top ten Fogelsanger at 5 and Kaelyn Long at 8 and Allie Christopher, and Megan Keeney tied for 10th.

Goalkeeper is the last line of defense and Lafayette’s Sarah Park leads the league in shutouts, goals against per game, and save percentage (.78).The save percentage for Holy Cross’ LaPlante is .735, Bucknell’s Olivia Haris is .70 and Fiona Minter from American is .688. Minter did not play in last week’s senior day game at American.

Each team has their solid leaders in Van der Geest, Coenen, Willwerth and LaPlante. All four teams have been here before. These teams will bring intensity, irrespective of their records. In the first games. Holy Cross must find their way to the goal cage and test the American goalkeeper. An early lead on a defense minded team may be the key to this game.  In the second game on Friday against two very similar teams Lafayette clearly must find their way to the circle to get corners and shots. They must continue their dominant defense while Bucknell will try to high press and get turnovers and keep Lafayette away from the attacking third. This game could be decided by midfielders and the transition game.

Bring your warmest clothes and be thankful we are playing in the afternoon!!  Go Pards!!!

Eighteen games have been played and  brought Lafayette into the position to win a Championship. Winning  the game last Saturday would have been big. We would have had a crowd of about 1,000 supporters, good parking, and the team could sleep in their own beds. Unfortunately that didn’t happen…forget about it..start thinking about the NEXT game and its not American. The Leopards will be playing Bucknell, a worthy opponent and you can believe they are thinking about the 2-1 loss they had to Lafayette several weeks ago,  just as Holy Cross is thinking about their one goal loss to American about the same time.

The “learning” is over and it’s the “result” that counts from now on!!! One and done as they say. One loss and the season is over. Make no mistake about it, I believe the Leopards can win this tournament and even make a statement in the NCAA tournament, but it’s the Bucknell game at 2:30 that matters. Overall this is as fine a team Lafayette has had over the years, but Bucknell comes in with 12 straight appearances in the PL tournament. Several years ago, they were the PL regular season champion and lost to BU in the tournament at their place.

There can be no walking around, free hits must be defended and executed with alacrity. Neither team can give the other time to get organized. Records don’t count anymore, only the results this weekend. Eight years ago the Leopards won the championship against Bucknell at American. A year later American met the Leopards on Rappolt field and American lost on a penalty stroke.

It doesn’t matter what sport, in whatever season, tournaments are intense. It could be a World Series, the World Cup in soccer and field hockey, or the NCAA basketball tournament. There is no next game!!

More, later this week on Bucknel,l who beat Holy Cross 2-1 this past weekend to set up the field for the tournament along with the Lehigh win over BU!!

“Talent sets the floor, character sets the ceiling”—–Bill Belichick