Providence will leave the friendly confines of Rhode Island for only the second time this season. As far as I can tell, it may be their first visit to Lafayette, ever, as well. They are riding a three game win streak ( Maine, Bryant and Brown) and a two game unscored upon run. The Leopards will be looking to avenge a 2-0 loss to Friars last year at their place during a senior day game. That game was played after an important win against Holy Cross the previous day. It was a day that both teams were only to take 14 shots, total, during the game. According to the Friars web site Providence has a 2-0 record with Lafayette.
This week both teams have played their last game on Sunday, and will have had all week to prepare. For Providence, it will be the only game of the week, before they play Old Dominion next week. Lafayette will be hosting Richmond at home on Sunday.
Lafayette will be playing only their second game at home for the season, and will be trying to break a three game losing streak, two of which were with top 20 teams. The relative stats are hard to figure out, but one thing is clear, Lafayette must begin to find their sustained offense, having only scored 6 goals on 39 shots to date. Providence has averaged 2,75 goals a game with their highest production against Maine, where they scored 5 goals. They have taken a total of 59 shots so far this season, to give them the 11 goals.
At this point in the season, it’s difficult to assess statistics, as can be demonstrated by the ACR ( Average Computer Rating), RPI (Ratings Percentage Index), and the SOS ( Strength of Schedule). Using those three indexes indicates an advantage to Lafayette. Calculated by Field Hockey Corner, the ACR is the average to two computer ratios, one based on goal differential and the other on won loss record. The RPI is based on .25 W/L record, .50 on SOS, and .25 on opponents W/L record. The SOS is based on opponents W/L record.
First, the key to understanding the outcomes, so far this season, is the SOS. Providence scores 75th on SOS while Lafayette scores 5th. Meaning to date, Lafayette has had the 5th most difficult schedule in Division one. Using RPI, in which 50% of the score is based on SOS Lafayette is ranked 30 while Providence is 58. (Lower is better). Even in the ACR, Lafayette get an edge 46 to 49. I do admit, that these indices get more reliable as the season progresses, but it does caution us, that W/L’s can be deceiving.
In any case, this is a competitive game, and the Leopards are at home. Looking at the internals Providence goals have been spread around. There are 4 players on Providence who have scored 2 goals apiece. Izzy Mendez (4),Kara Sanford (5), Niamh Gorwing (7), and Olivia Ward (13). Mendez and Gorwing are starters and the other two have come off the bench! Goalkeeping stats are in Providence’s favor with 78-68 save percentage.
I am looking for a good game with a good crowd of supporters!!!